Guys I'm Fading in 2019

For me, a players price is one of the major factors when making my draft selections. You don't win your league in the draft, but you can set yourself up in a big way. Hype on a certain player could drive his average draft position up substantially. There are quite a few guys that I simply just won't draft when there are sometimes similar options that could be had a few rounds later. This is just one of the many ways to navigate through your drafts to give you an edge over your opponents. Welcome to the start of my 2019 Fantasy Draft Kit. 

*All ADP data is via FantasyFootballCalculator.com

James Conner (ADP 1.12, RB7)

He was definitely a crowd favorite to start the season. If you had Conner on your team last year, you then know he started to fade out towards the end of the season. In his final 5 games he was only averaging around 12.8 carries per game. During the first 9 weeks he was averaging around 18.8. I currently have him projected to end as the RB14 on the year, which is a 5 spot difference from where he is currently going. I would rather have Dalvin Cook, Todd Gurley, and even Kerryon Johnson over Conner this year. All three guys are currently going after Conner. 

Antonio Brown (ADP 2.10, WR9)

I may be in the minority, but I don't think AB will land in the top 10 of WR this year. I just don't seeing him having the same success he did in Pittsburgh. I think there are far safer options to roll with at this ADP. He is going before Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and TY Hilton. I have all three guys projected to score more points than AB this year. Even then I might be looking to get a RB instead. I don't see this as one of the top offenses in the league and I think AB production gets a small hit. There have been a ton of drama surrounding AB this offseason and it is just to messy for me. 

Leonard Fournette (ADP 3.03, RB14) 

This ADP is way to much for me. It also seems strange to me. How are people in on him this year? Sure Nick Foles should upgrade the offense, but will Fournette really be healthy? He hasn't finished an entire season in his two years in the NFL. If he is fully healthy all year, sure he might live up the the RB15 price, but give me Devonta Freeman or Kerryon Johnson instead. Both are going after him somehow. I'd rather pick someone else and get Ryquell Armstead in the 14th/15th round. We saw T.J. Yeldon have success last year when Fournette went down. 

Philip Lindsay (ADP 4.12, RB24) 

I'm sticking to my guns from last season and saying Royce Freeman will be the back to own on this team. I was very high on Royce going into last season. Although Lindsay was the highlight of the RB core, Freeman still managed to get 500 yards and 5 TD's. I believe this new coaching staff will see the talent they have in Royce leading to an increase in production. Now I do think this will still end up into some type of committee but I think Royce could lead the team this year. Even if he gets close, Lindsay isn't worth the 4th round price when you can wait and get Royce 4 rounds later. It really comes down to who you believe in between those two. I'll die on the Royce Freeman hill. 

Calvin Ridley (ADP 5.05, WR 23)

I may be a little low on Ridley currently but I don't see the value here. He was outsnapped by Mohamed Sanu last year. I know it was his rookie year and I even projected him to take a slight step forward this year. It all comes down to value for me. I think there are much better options around Ridley that will outscore him this year. Plus if you still wanted a piece of this offense, Sanu is currently undrafted. Last year Ridley scored just 26 more points than Sanu. Easy fade for me this year. 

Mike Williams (ADP 6.01, WR 27) 

He is a break out candidate for some but not for me. I would much rather have the guys who are going all around him at this price. Guy's like Tyler Boyd, D.J. Moore, and even Alshon Jeffery. Although, I really only like 2-3 guys in this 6th round ADP. I have projected him to see an 22% increase in his overall targets from last years totals. I do think his touchdown totals will decrease with the Hunter Henry returning from injury. I view him as a boom-or-bust TD dependent WR. You can find some of those guys later in the draft. I'd rather find a guy who has more consistency with similar upside. Tyler Boyd is probably my favorite guy around this ADP. 

Eric Ebron (ADP 8.01, TE9)

I think its an OK price for how he played last year but I am going to hold off this year. If I don't get one of the top 3 guys, I will most likely wait on TE. People forget that Jack Doyle has been Andrew Luck's guy for a few years now. He missed most of the year due to injury. When Doyle returned for a few games, it significantly brought down Ebron's targets. Doyle played in weeks 1,2,8,9,10 and 11. During those weeks Ebron averaged about 3.6 targets a game. In games Doyle missed, Ebron averaged 8.8 targets a game. Now I do think Ebron will lead the TE group in targets but I think people are completely forgetting about Doyle this year. 

Patrick Mahomes (ADP 2.12, QB1)

For me this is all about the price. I will more than likely not draft Mahomes in a single draft this year. I have always been a wait on QB kind of guy. There are so much value later in the draft at the QB position. I get the want to get the top QB in fantasy, but at what price? I can't see myself pulling the trigger in round 3 when I can get a Carson Wentz or Cam Newton in round 8 or 9. Instead of writing an almost identical piece about Baker Mayfield, I am going to throw him in here as well. To much hype around him when you can get the same or better production later in the draft. 

Tarik Cohen (ADP 6.02, RB28) 

He was the pass catching back on this team but I think that ship may have sailed this year. David Montgomery looks legit. He can run like Jordan Howard, but he he also does something Howard could not. Catch. I think Montgomery is set to take a nice share of Cohen's targets leaving Cohen has more of a high end handcuff with some flex value depending on the week. No way would I use a 6th round pick on him this year.